Sales Forecasting Magic - Predicting the Future With Your Pipeline Data

If you’re a business leader, sales forecasting is a part of your job description. However, getting the correct numbers without accurate data can be difficult.

One of the fastest ways to forecast is by using historical data and industry trends. But this method can account for something other than dynamic markets or evolving customer needs.

Analyze Your Pipeline

The leads in your sales process are represented visually in a sales pipeline, which also displays their financial value and current stage. You can use this data to find patterns and trends that will help you forecast future sales performance.

Before starting any analysis, knowing what you want your model to achieve is essential. This helps you determine metrics to track, making the data more accurate. Review your historical sales performance and current trends to build a successful model. Then, consider external environmental factors to project future sales success rates.

For example, you might find a downward trend in the number of new opportunities created over a given period. This could mean that your team is focused on closing existing deals, which naturally shrinks the total pipeline size over time. It’s important to understand these trends to determine the reason for the change and how it might affect future performance.

Another critical metric is the average deal value for each pipeline stage. This can help you determine if any opportunities in your sales funnel need to be more significant for your business. You can also compare the average value of each stage to other metrics, such as pipeline velocity and drop-offs. Using sales pipeline management tools that display your data on a unified dashboard is helpful.

Look at Historical Trends

Sales forecasts are a critical component of business planning. But they can be challenging to make accurately, especially as your sales processes evolve or your market conditions change. As a result, companies are changing their approach to forecasting, resulting in more flexible and accurate models.

One way to improve your sales forecasts is by looking at historical data. By analyzing sales history, you can determine if specific trends are repeating themselves. Using this information, you can build a forecast model that predicts how much revenue will be generated in each sales period. This method is often called sales run rate.

Another helpful method is to use historical sales data to establish sales probability for each pipeline stage. 

While this method can be very effective, it can also be misleading. For example, if your company typically sees a spike in sales around Christmas, this trend may not apply to the upcoming quarter. In addition, new factors could come into play this year, such as a product launch or increased competition. These changes can drastically alter your predictions.

Create a Forecasting Model

Creating a sales forecast model that works for your organization and business is essential. Several models are available, including time series analysis, regression modeling, and neural networks. Each method has its advantages and disadvantages. For example, time series analysis can be easy to set up but have high error rates. Similarly, regression models can be complex to set up but have good accuracy. Ultimately, the best choice for your organization will depend on what types of sales you do and how complicated or straightforward your processes are.

It would help to build a successful forecasting model with a solid historical sales database. This means that you need to be tracking the right metrics and storing, transforming, and organizing this information in an easily accessible way. Consider using a CRM that can automatically import and transform this data.

The next step is to look at your historical sales data and identify trends. For instance, if you sell a product with a seasonal impact, you might see an increase in sales in the fall or holiday season. You can then use this information to predict future sales. Consider other factors affecting sales, such as new laws or environmental changes.

Build a Forecasting Dashboard

Effective pipeline forecasting requires a balanced blend of quantitative data and qualitative insights. The goal is to create a clear understanding of the potential sales opportunity that informs a range of business development decisions. It helps you use resources best, develop targeted marketing campaigns, and allocate budgets. It also allows you to identify patterns in customer behavior or market fluctuations that help you improve your sales strategies and increase revenue.

The traditional approach to sales pipeline forecasting involves collecting and analyzing data from various sources, including CRM systems, sales performance reports, and customer feedback surveys. Using this data, you calculate conversion rates and other metrics to predict the likelihood of a deal reaching certain stages in the sales process. This data then forecasts each sales stage based on historical trends and conversion rates.

This model has its challenges, however. It is often influenced by the subjective opinions of sales reps, who may apply different criteria to each sales opportunity or omit essential factors that affect the sale’s probability of success. In addition, this type of forecast is usually confined to the CRM system. It is based on information captured by sales reps, which limits the accuracy of its predictions.